All port, shipping and logistics companies are looking forward to two things: first, Trump’s final decision on tariffs for countries around the world; second, the arrival of the traditional peak season in the second half of the year!

However, Trump's tariff storm is disrupting the shipping rhythm of the global trade and shipping logistics market. Although it has entered the traditional peak season of the third quarter, the price and volume of US lines have continued to fall and remain sluggish. The world's largest container liner company, Mediterranean Shipping Company, hasBe the first to start the suspension journey.

It is expected that after the new reciprocal tariffs are imposed in August, the new tariff rates will generally be higher than the previous 90-day preferential period, thereby suppressing global trade volume. The peak season for the US line may have ended!

The latest report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that import volume at major container ports in the United States will rebound in July, reaching approximately 2.36 million TEUs (20-foot containers), a monthly increase of 14.56% and an annual increase of 2.1%, reaching the highest point this year, but this high point will be fleeting.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that after the tariffs take effect on August 1, imports in that month will decrease by 11.86% month-on-month and 10.4 % year-on-year, and then decrease month by month , with a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% ​​in September, 19.2% in October, and 21.3% in November . The traditional peak season in the third quarter will no longer exist.

US online shipments have been very "abnormal" this year, with US retailers rushing shipments in the first quarter in response to tariff risks. 

In early April, the United States announced its first reciprocal tariffs, which caused a sharp freeze in cargo volume. 

China's reciprocal tariffs were suspended in May, and there was a wave of shipments at the end of May, but it was not as good as expected; 

Cargo volume fell again in June. The United States sent tariff letters to many countries starting from July 7. The tariffs of major Asian exporting countries are generally higher than 20%, with additional transshipment clauses targeting China's origin. The market faces more uncertainties, cargo owners are wait-and-see, and cargo volume is sluggish.

▲Cargo volume is expected to continue to decline in the second half of the year

Data released by the Port of Los Angeles, North America's largest port, on Monday (July 14th) showed that the port's import volume from July 13th to 19th reached 128,720 TEUs, an increase of 8.68% from the previous week and 13.23% from the same period last year. This is good news.

However, bad news is also coming. Statistics from the Port of Los Angeles show that the number of containers arriving at the port in the week of July 20 to 26 was 120,072 TEUs, a decrease of 6.72% month-on-month and 11.47% year-on-year . Even worse, the import volume from July 27 to August 2 is expected to drop sharply to 78,025 TEUs, a decrease of 35.02% month-on-month and 22.10% year-on-year.

In May this year, the total exports of the Far East increased by 3% year-on-year, the highest in the world, and exports to Europe hit a record high. It is worth noting that exports to North America and Central and South America decreased compared with April, down 9.2% and 3.5% respectively.

Judah Levine, Director of Research at Freightos  In a new report, the US Treasury stated that the scope of the tariffs currently in place is unprecedented, both in terms of the level of tariffs imposed on China and the high rates imposed on other US trading partners. Unlike previous periods of trade tensions where trade flows were simply diverted, the breadth of these tariffs means that the cost of US imports will inevitably rise.

Currently, most economists predict slower U.S. GDP growth, a growing likelihood of recessions both domestically and internationally, and a potential contraction in global trade. Judah Levine said these factors will inevitably impact the freight market, particularly ocean and air freight.

For manufacturing, export, and foreign trade logistics companies reliant on international trade, future market adaptability is crucial. Judah Levine stated that these strategies may include diversifying supply chains, exploring alternative transportation methods, and closely monitoring policy developments. He stated that while challenges remain, it is possible to find opportunities amidst the chaos. The coming months may reshape the global shipping and logistics industry in ways we are only beginning to understand.